WNBA best bets: Expert picks, player props, prediction for Wed. 5/15

Sky vs. Wings

Wednesday, May 15, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Natasha Howard over 7.5 rebs (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

It's opening night, so the sample size is non-existent, but this is a mark Howard cleared consistently last season — 24 out of 44 tries, including playoffs, to be exact.

And this match-up could be a favorable considering that the Sky already start the season short-handed in the frontcourt with Kamilla Cardoso and Isebelle Harrison out. It means Angel Reese and Elizabeth Williams get more run. The former is making her WNBA debut, and the latter is a very good defender, but not a great rebounder.

You could justify taking Howard up to 10+ boards if you wanted, but I like the over on 7.5 at least.

Pick: Natasha Howard over 7.5 rebs

Sky vs. Wings

Wednesday, May 15, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Dana Evans over 9.5 points and Marina Mabrey over 14.5 points (DraftKings)

By Jim Turvey

The Chicago Sky kick off a new era on Wednesday night, as they open their 2024 campaign in Dallas, taking on Arike Ogunbowale and the Dallas Wings.

The Sky snuck into the postseason last year, but during the offseason lost several key pieces, highlighted by Kahleah Copper, who herself was the last core piece of their championship team in 2021.

Copper was the Sky's leading scorer last season, as well as–easily–their top usage player in 2023. As such, I'm eyeing certain players to step up in her absence.

Evans and Mabrey are two perfect candidates, as they were the two players who saw their points per 100 possessions jump the most when Kah was off the court last season, via pbpstats.com.

This play lines up very well positionally, as well. The Wings best defense is in the post, with two perimeter players here. The Wings had the third-worst defense both overall and against the three in 2023, and with arguably their best defender, Satou Sabally, out through the Olympic break, I don't see that changing to start 2024.

I would bet Evans to over 12.5 and Mabrey to over 16.5.

Pick: Dana Evans over 9.5 points and Marina Mabrey over 14.5 points

Dream vs. Sparks

Wednesday, May 15, 10 p.m. ET, League Pass
SGP (+105): Over 154.5 + Sparks +10.5 (Bet365)

By Michael Arinze

It’s not often that a team gives away its game plan, but Sparks head coach Curt Miller wants his team to play with an up-tempo style while being an above-average unit from the perimeter.

Miller certainly has a mix of talent who can play the game at his desired pace, given the projected guard-dominant starting lineup of Layshia Clarendon, Lexie Brown, and Kia Nurse.

And if that’s not enough, Miller can insert Zia Cooke and Aari McDonald into the backcourt off the bench.

But what’s been impressive about the Sparks, despite a small preseason sample size, is their ability to rebound the basketball.

In two games, Los Angeles outrebounded its opponents 84-39. Sparks forward Dearica Hamby looked possessed, collecting 16 rebounds in the preseason.

If you can control the glass, you’re more likely to dictate the pace of play and run your offense as you see fit.

The most appealing wager for this game is the Sparks team total. Unfortunately, that option isn’t widely available perhaps because it could be a liability for sportsbooks after releasing a low opening total that’s now been bet up from 156.5 to 160.

As a result, we’ll have to get a bit creative for our best bet.

At Bet365, you can build a two-leg same-game parlay that adjusts the spread and total by 5.5 points.

In this instance, we can combine an alternate total of over 154.5 with the Sparks' alternate spread of +10.5 to get better than even money at +105.

Pick: SGP (+105): Over 154.5 + Sparks +10.5